​​500 Super Containerships Launched?! The Container Shipping Market "Will Never Return to the Old Normal"​

With 7.1 million TEU in order backlog and 5 million TEU of capacity set for delivery in the next two years, the container shipping market's capacity growth will set a 20-year record high.

Reduced market demand has led to a continuous sharp drop in container freight rates, while the container shipping market will face an unprecedented wave of deliveries in the next two years. The phenomena of ship shortages, container shortages, and port congestion, which fueled the container shipping market's boom over the past two years due to the pandemic, are gradually disappearing. Furthermore, long-term contracts and environmental regulations, once considered market safeguards, are being debunked one by one, making the container ship market increasingly risky.

5 million TEU capacity to be delivered in the next two years! Will a large number of ships be idled in the coming years?

At the beginning of this year, Drewry, Alphaliner, and Clarkson, the three major shipping research institutions, all predicted that the market would mostly see undersupply this year. However, all three institutions have now changed their expectations, believing that oversupply will occur this year.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Norwegian shipping analytics platform Xeneta, recently stated that based on current freight rates, most shipping companies can make a profit with just 50-60% capacity utilization. However, if freight rates continue to decline, capacity management will face issues.

He warned that the possibility of

Alphaline统计显示，今年前7个月，虽然新船订单量从2021年的平均每月35.8万TEU减少到每月24.8万TEU，但自年初以来集装箱船手持订单仍然增加了120万TEU，目前达到700万TEU，相当于现有船队27.6%。由此产生的交付量将极大地影响未来几年的市场走向，因为在2023-3024年期间将有大约500万TEU在建新船待交付。

集装箱船市场在2021-2022年经历了航运史上最赚钱的两年。因此，船东订造了更多的集装箱船。Alphaliner航运分析师Stefan Verberckmoes称，目前集装箱船手持订单为710万TEU，相当于现有船队运力的30%。其中大部分新船将在未来两年交付，2023年为234万TEU，2024年为283万TEU，而2021年和2022年平均交付量均约为110万TEU。

Alphaliner警告称：“在市场需求停滞之际，大量新集装箱船即将下水。然而市场可能无法吸收所有新运力。”

即将交付的规模是前所未有的。克拉克森的历史交付数据显示，2001-2020年间集装箱船队年平均增长量为97万TEU。而2023-2024年的交付量将是平均水平的2.6倍。根据克拉克森的数据，2014年新船交付量曾达到创纪录的170万TEU，但这仍远低于如今的水平。

根据Alphaliner的统计数据，就手持订单而言，地中海航运稳居全球第一，手持订单总计超过150万TEU，相当于现有船队的33%以上。之后依次是达飞轮船、中远海运集团、海洋网联船务（ONE）、赫伯罗特，不过这几家公司的在建运力均不及地中海航运的一半。

     不过，Alphaliner的数据显示，目前前10大集运公司租入船舶运力明显多于其在建新船，例如地中海航运目前租入船舶约为250万TEU，比在建新船多出68%，达飞轮船的租入船舶约为180万TEU，是其在建新船的2.5倍，中远海运集团的租船运力也是在建新船的两倍以上，因此集运公司可以以租约到期为由退租，为其订购的新船腾出空间。

BIMCO预期，2022年船队运力总增长为2.9%，2023年达8.0%，加上2020年的2.9%和2021年的4.5%，与疫情前水平相比船队增速已经超过了主程和区域贸易货运量需求。同时，拥堵仍然是消耗运力供应的主要途径。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据，2022年1月拥堵程度达到船队规模的13.8%，但到2022年5月已降至9.6%。

BIMCO认为，拥堵可能在一段时间内继续成为维持市场供需平衡的驱动力，不过从2023年开始在船舶需求方面现有船舶能效指数（EEXI）的生效或将成为一个更重要的因素。

假设2023年船舶需求由于EEXI而增加10%、拥堵程度减少7-8%、船队规模增加8%、货物需求增加3-4%的船舶需求，BIMCO得出结论，2023年市场供需平衡将恶化，并导致期租租金和二手船价格进一步下降。

运价持续暴跌！专家：运价走势回不去了

Freightos波罗的海运价指数（FBX）首席分析师Judah Levine指出，美国进口量从美西大量转移至美东，推升通过巴拿马运河的现货运价，使美东线运价免于严重下滑的命运；亚洲至美西运价自年初以来下跌75%，相比之下美东线运价“只比”年初降低了50%，目前与2021年5月差不多。

在连跌16周之后，上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）在9月30日跌破2000点关卡仅剩1922.95点，相比年初历史高点5109点下降了一半以上。其中远东-美西线每FEU运价已经下跌至2399美元，相比年初历史高点7900美元下跌超过三分之二，欧洲线和地中海线每TEU运价也已经跌破3000美元。

      今年上半年，班轮公司主程（head-haul）和区域贸易的货运量同比下降0.2%，但仍比2019年疫情前的水平高出8%。货运量相比2021年只有降幅不大，难以解释大规模的运价修正现象。BIMCO认为必须转而从供给面寻求解释，一方面船队运力持续增长，另一方面今年迄今为止塞港的影响较小，运力供应增加，而需求略有放缓。

The trend of containership time charter rates and second-hand vessel prices is consistent with the SCFI and CCFI indices. The average daily rate for 6-12 month time charter contracts peaked in early April this year, and has since declined by 6.0%. The average price of five-year-old second-hand containerships has dropped by 5.3% since April, but is still 34.7% higher than the price of newbuilds. This indicates that there is still a willingness in the market to pay a significant premium for existing capacity, but it must be noted that second-hand vessel sales and purchase activities have decreased.

Overall, BIMCO states that while freight rates, charter rates, vessel prices, and cargo volumes have all seen slight declines, the container shipping market remains strong. However, the global economic situation is not optimistic, with high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic growth. In the second quarter of this year, mainlane and regional cargo volumes to Europe and Oceania decreased by 7.3% and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, while cargo volume to North America only increased by 1.0% year-on-year.

The global economic headwinds are increasingly impacting the container shipping market, with the traditional Q3 peak season virtually non-existent in 2022 across all important mainlane and regional trades. BIMCO forecasts that mainlane and regional trade volumes may decline by 1-2% in 2022, followed by a 3-4% growth in 2023.

However, BIMCO also pointed out that while freight rates are expected to decline, they are unlikely to return to the extremely low levels seen before the pandemic.

Industry insiders indicate that due to global inflation, economic recession, decreased purchasing power, coupled with the turbulent global situation, and with global capacity continuously increasing over the next two to three years, freight rates are likely 
   
        不仅如此，国际海事组织（IMO）明年即将上路的环保法规，原先市场预测将让船东启动拆船、降速减排等措施，也能减少市场供给；不过，如今发现环保法规的影响力恐怕是宣示姓居多，明年因尚未有严格的要求，影响要在2024年才会真正启动，这也意味着明后两年集装箱航运市场将会面临真正的考验。