The global fleet has grown by 50% since the 2008 financial crisis

2016-09-23 09:00

Clarkson recently released a report stating that the global fleet has grown by 50% since the 2008 global financial crisis. The current fleet size is approximately 9,000 vessels, 1.2 billion gross tons or 1.8 billion deadweight tons, with a total value of $650 billion. There are also $190 billion in new ship orders (excluding offshore orders).

In terms of fleet growth, 2010 and 2011 were the peak years for global fleet growth, with an 8% increase. This year's fleet growth is expected to be 3%, and will further decline to 2% in 2018.

Currently, the global operating fleet has an overcapacity of approximately 15%, second only to the 20% overcapacity in the 1980s. The offshore market performance is the worst since 1986, with much capacity left idle, except for the Middle East offshore market.

Record-high oil prices before 2014 also stimulated investment in ultra-deepwater oil development in the following years. The current market is more like the downturn triggered by Saudi Arabia's oil overproduction in 1986.

In the shipping sector, the surge in new ship orders in 2010, 2013, and 2015 exacerbated overcapacity. Due to environmental ships and Tier III NOx emission regulations, investment institutions, including private equity, have joined the shipbuilding industry.

The ultimate result of overcapacity is an increase in ship demolition. In the first half of 2016, the bulk carrier sector (ship type, shipyard, sales) set a new record of 22.1 million deadweight tons of demolition. This month, a German shipowner even demolished a 10-year-old Panamax container ship (ship type, shipyard, sales), setting a new record for the youngest ship to be demolished.

August 2016 Global Shipbuilding Industry Monthly Report

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