Morgan Stanley: New ship prices to continue falling into 2016
2015-08-13 09:00
Morgan Stanley projects that the newbuilding price index has been declining since June 2014 and this trend will continue until 2016.
It is understood that the newbuilding price index reached its peak of 140 points in June 2014, and then steadily declined to 132 points on June 19, 2015. However, it is worrying that the decline in 2015 was faster, dropping rapidly from 137.5 in January to 132.9 in May.
Morgan Stanley stated that there are several factors contributing to the decline in the newbuilding price index, including the aggressive bidding strategy of Japanese shipyards, and the expansion and increase of shipbuilding capacity. However, China's shipbuilding capacity has been declining since 2013, and many small shipyards have withdrawn from the shipbuilding industry.
The decline in the index is also adversely affected by the losses accumulated by South Korean shipyards in 2014. However, South Korean shipyards are not worried because their new ship orders are concentrated in container ships, tankers and other types of ships, and shipbuilding prices remain basically stable.
In the market, the newbuilding price of a 13000TEU container ship has dropped from US$117 million to US$116 million; while the price of an 8800TEU new container ship has increased by US$1 million to US$89 million; and the average price of a very large ore carrier has dropped from US$58 million to US$50 million.
Arctic Securities analysts previously also stated that the bankruptcy of STX Dalian and more Chinese shipyards may lead to a further decline in new ship prices. Analysts said that global shipyard capacity is still oversupplied, while commodity shipping demand has been declining over the past 12 months. Undoubtedly, more and more shipyards will face crises in the future. This will lead to a continued decline in new ship prices, because competition among shipyards is no longer just for profit but for survival.
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